Subject: Yugoslavia in Crisis section of www.iacenter.org
Date: Mon, 9 Oct 2000 14:43:09 -0400
From: iacenter@...
To: "International" <iacenter@...>


International Action Center
39 West 14th Street, #206
NY, NY 10011
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Dear Friends

In light of the grave events in Belgrade Oct. 5, 2000 and
the threat of a complete U.S.-NATO takeover of Yugoslavia,
the International Action Center has decided to set up a new
section on its web site called "Yugoslavia in
Crisis--reports and analyses." Here we will reproduce some
of the reports and analyses from sources independent of the
corporate media, both organizationally and ideologically.
Where possible this will include reports from Yugoslavia
written by honest journalists who have proven themselves
opposed to the NATO bombing campaign and war of 1999.
Yugoslavia in Crisis--reports and analyses


The articles include reports from Michel Collon, author of
two books on the Balkan crisis and a resolute anti-war and
anti-NATO activist; Ruediger Goebel, an editor and
correspondent from the German progressive daily newspaper,
Junge Welt, who was in Yugoslavia during the NATO bombing
campaign writing daily articles, and Tanja Djurovic, a Junge
Welt correspondent from Belgrade. We will also publish IAC
analyses and those from other non-corporate sources.

Where we receive articles not in English, we will include
the original language as well as our English translation.

You can find this material at www.iacenter.org on the home
page under the above title. For your information, we include
some sample reports from the correspondents.

Yours in struggle,
Sara Flounders and John Catalinotto
October 9, 2000





BELGRADE JOURNAL - Friday October 6, 3 p.m.

Michel Collon



The 8 questions of the day


I shall try to answer the 8 questions that sum up the events
:
1. Did the TV show all ?
2. Did we experience a well-prepared coup-d'Etat ?
3. What is the U.S. trying to accomplish in the current
situation ?
4. Did people vote for Kostunica or against Milosevic ?
5. Why did those in power not forsee their electoral setback
?
6. Were the elections truly free and fair ?
7. Are those people who support Kostunica also for the
United States ?
8. What is going to happen ?

1. Did the TV show all ? Nothing to add to the images
presented by BBC and CNN. In effect there was an enormous
crowd, the police put up a very weak resistance and above
all looked for ways to avoid serious confrontations. But
what I didn't see exposed on the Western networks was the
plundering of the headquarters of the Socialist Party (while
Kostunica had announced that there should be no
revenge-taking toward the parties), and the buildings of
various public enterprises. Neither was shown the broken
windows of a certain number of stores in the center, which
were subsequently looted. I personally saw demonstrators
leave center city by the bridge over the Sava, while
carrying on their shoulders stolen computers. In the center
also, those not demonstrating found it deplorable that
people were destroying public property : " We'll have to pay
for it. " But the most important thing is that the
opposition succeeded in bringing out an enormous
mobilization and that those in power were unable to oppose
it with a counter-mobilization.

2. Carefully prepared coup d'Etat ? The demonstrators were
led by some hundreds of very active young people, most of
whom had come from Cacak, Kragujevac and other opposition
strongholds (Belgrade is luke-warm). You could say that they
proceeded methodically to take control of a series of key
places. First of all, the Parliament. Obviously a symbol.
Still one could notice that Mr. Kostunica, always presented
as a convinced legalist and constitutionalist, had taken
over the Parliament at the moment when that Parliament had
just been elected and that the opposition was not
challenging the results of the parliamentary elections. What
does the USA want ? We shall soon see. Next, the television
station RTS. Just like in Romania in 1989 and in each coup
d'Etat, to take over the big media centers and deprive the
enemy of the right of response seems to have become
Objective Number 1. The other media centers and certain
buildings of public enterprises followed.


This systematic and well-planned character of the action
reminded one that the real chief of the opposition, Zoran
Djindjic, had declared several months ago to Greek TV that
if they failed to win the elections, they would take over
parliament. This was nothing new. In 1993 in Moscow, Yeltsin
- backed by the U.S. - had burned down Parliament [the
Russian Duma] and killed a number of deputies that had been
resisting him. Another opposition leader, Mrs. Pesic, had
raised the need to " create a Bucharest syndrome. " These
things were prepared long in advance.

3. Why is the U.S. still pushing for a test of strength ?
Why this attempt at a total confrontation ? Why do they
refuse all negociated compromise that would permit them to
avoid the risk of a bloodbath ? Because they know that the
opposition that they are about to lead to power suffers two
serious weaknesses that could be fatal to it, and without
needed to wait long years for these weaknesses to show. What
are these weaknesses ?

First, the DOS coalition is completely heterogenous.
Nineteen (18 ?) parties that have nothing in common but the
will to take power and a taste for dollars from Washington.
In this coalition you can find people who have fought each
other more or less to the death for years (Djindjic had
pushed out Kostunica and many others), monarchists and
republicans, Serbian nationalists and separatists (from
Sandjak and Vojvodinje) whose programs are diametrically
opposed. Once in office, it is clear they will once again
begin making the gravest splits and conflicts of interests.
It will be absolutely impossible to carry out the programs
of all the parties. The magic of " Unity behind Kostunica "
won't last long.

In addition, and this is the second factor, the DOS will
strongly disillusion its electors. Those voters, financially
and morally exhausted by 10 years of sanctions, desire to "
live normally, " (that's the idea that was most frequently
expressed to me by the demonstrators that I questioned on
October 5), that is to have a standard of living as close as
possible to that of the West. But, as we have already
explained in an earlier article, the opposition's G-17
program forsees the liquidation of social protections and
the public enterprises, massive layoffs and carte blanche
for the multinational corporations to buy the enterprises
they are interested in and to more effectively exploit the
workers. A few people will live better, many will live
worse.

With the result that, sooner or later, Kostunica will
disillusion his supporters and they will give up hope. Will
there be an alternative then ? Could the left parties and
those who defend the independence of the country return to
power (on the condition that they carry out certain
self-examinations, as we will see) as could be the case in
the next elections in three neighboring countries :
Macedonia, the Serb Republic in Bosnia and Romania ? It is
just to avoid this possibility of a legitimate return to
power in the next elections that the U.S. is trying so hard
to break the current governmental apparatus and that of the
left parties in Yugoslavia.

In the last elections in Macedonia, the left candidate was
leading, but violent incidents grew to the point that the
leader of the left finally pulled back for fear of very
violent confrontations. We should point out that U.S. and
other troops occupy this country and there is no doubt their
intervention is aimed at stopping the left. We add that for
the West that claims it is so careful of legality, the
elections in Macedonia were " perfect. "

4. Did people vote for Kostunica or against Milosevic ? The
latter answer is correct according to many people I spoke
with. Despite his 10 years in power, Milosevic had acquired
a great prestige during the war for firmly resisting NATO,
which is what corresponded to the will of all his people.
But the party in power wasted its opportunities by commiting
two major errors.


First, it permitted, even favored the growth of social
inequalities. Yes, sanctions (embargo) are a crime the West
imposed that made the population suffer cruelly. But that
public had also seen certain outrageously large fortunes
grow up under its eyes. It is incorrect to claim, as the
Western media does, that " all the nomenklatura lives in
luxury. " I managed to visit the appartments of certain
mid-level ministry officials - they were just as modest as
those of the neighbors, in the socially constructed
buildings that had nothing of luxury about them.
Nevertheless, there were also scandalous life-styles of
those in business and in trafficking. To hold onto its
support, the regime would have to fight against the interest
of those with large fortunes and devote more effort to
social services to aid the poorest people.

In addition, the communication strategy of the leadership as
well as the public media had not proven fruitful. A number
of jokes circulated about RTS television and messages from
the top leadership had lost their credibility when it was
constantly repeated that all was going well.

5. Why didn't Milosevic see it coming ? How could it be that
Milosevic had decided to call these early elections himself
? And that, up to the last minute, the parties in power
showed themselves sure of winning, so much so that they were
taken completely aback when they had to " manage " their
defeat ?

A certain bureaucratism is involved in the answer. You can
find among the officials and functionaries many very devoted
people, full of enthusiasm to defend their country. You also
find a certain number of bureaucrats who never tire of
looking for solutions to problems. And one has the very
clear impression that the reports that they send to the "
top " are of the sort : " All is very well, your grace. "
Those in power had not taken into consideration that they
had lost a great part of the popularity they had during the
war. They believed that the elections were in their pocket.
And their campaign strategy was not good : Milosevic absent,
the self-satisfied discourses on reconstrution that is real,
but also negating the social problem and a systematic
message of the sort that " all will be very well " that had
lost its credibility.


6. Were the elections truly free and fair ? Of course,
this attempt at an analysis of the weaknesses of the parties
in office removes nothing from what we have already shown.
Yes, the elections were not at all free and fair. When you
bombard a people, destroy their factories, their electricity
and heating plants, their roads and their bridges, when you
throw horrible weapons like fragmentation bombs and depleted
uranium at them, when you submit the population to a
disgusting extortion - " Vote for the pro-West parties or
you will continue to starve " -- when you spread hundreds of
millions of dollars to aid certain political parties to
deceive the people with the help of advisers specialized in
scientific methods of organizing campaigns based on lies,
they one has to conclude that if these elections are as free
and fair, then Jamie Shea [spokesperson for NATO during the
bombing campaign] is a sincere and objective person.

7. Are those people who support Kostunica also for the
United States ? A argued with Kostunica's supports. It was
instructive. Since the opposition parties are financed -
grossly - by Washington, one could believe that Kostunica's
supporters were also partial to the United States.

False. A proverb that the Serbs apply to themselves with a
sort of self-mocking, points this out : " If you have two
Serbs, you will have three opinions. " Many demonstrators
spontaneously told me " We are not NATO. " A hairdresser of
French origin, having recognized me in the street (following
my television appearances), came spontaneously to let me
know that he greatly appreciated my criticisms against NATO,
but that I had been wrong to put the opposition parties in
the same bag. " We here detest the Americans, we know very
well what they are and what their interests are. "

" But we want no more of Milosevic. We want to live normally
without sanctions and like you others in the West. " Like
the unemployed and those on welfare in the West or like the
rich of the West ? Doesn't he realize that the Western
multinational corporations will not bring prosperity here
but a harsher exploitation ? No, this type of talk, for the
moment, they don't want to hear : " You could be right, but
we have to try it, we want change, change ! And if these new
leaders don't keep their promises, we will change again ! "
That though is a grand illusion, to believe that NATO will
permit a " step back. " But that is the current mood.

Another element to take notice of is that the DOS election
campaign strategy succeeded in promoting a strange but
effective idea : Milosevic was in fact a tool of the United
States - he served them and helped maintain their influence.
That idea doesn't hold up - why would the U.S. do everything
it could to eliminate the one that served them so well - but
certain people bought it anyway. Indeed, it was a classic
method of advertising : those who steal, cry " Stop, thief.
" Those who are paid by the [north] Americans, seem to by
crying " Down with the United States ! "

8. Que va-t-il se passer? Cette apres-midi, une vie plus ou
moins normale a repris dans les rues, encore que les
commerces restent fermes. Mais l'opposition veut maintenir
ses troupes dans le centre, pour eviter toute intervention
policiere de reprise en mains. Elle annonce une mobilisation
plus importante encore.
D'une part, l'opposition DOS cherche a conclure une alliance
au parlement en faisant eclater le parti montenegrin de
Bulatovic et en y trouvant les voix qui leur manquent pour
acquerir la majorite. On peut etre certain que les dollars
de Washington servent d'appat. De l'autre cote, le
gouvernement cherche la parade sans l'avoir trouve. Il
affirme ne pas vouloir lancer l'armée pour eviter un bain de
sang, il demande que la légalité soit respectee. Il
s'efforce de retrouver un média qui lui permette de faire
passer son message. Mais sa stratégie de communication
s'avere toujours aussi lente et chaotique. On attend en vain
une prise de position officielle. Ilosevic pourrait
prononcer un discours... On attend. A bientot!

8. What will happen ? This afternoon [Oct. 6], a
more-or-less normal life returned to the streets, although
the shops remained closed. But the opposition wants to keep
its troops in the center to avoid all possible police
intervention to retake it. It announced an even larger
mobilization. On the one hand, the DOS opposition is
looking to conclude a parliamentary alliance by splitting up
Bulatovic's Montenegrin party and finding there teh votes
that they lack to obtain a majority. One can be certain that
Washington's dollars will serve as bait. On the other hand,
the government is looking for a path of action without
finding it. It affirms it doesn't want to call out the army
because it wants to avoid a bloodbath, and demands that
legality be respected. It tries to find a media that will
allow it to spread its message. But its strategy of
communication is still slow and chaotic. One waits in vain
for an official position. Milosevic could be making a speech
… one waits. Soon.


NATO is getting ready to pick up the harvest. By Tanja
Djurovic, Belgrade

"I've just received information from official sources that
Vojislav Kostunica won the elections. I congratulate Mr.
Kostunica on his election victory...", said recent Yugoslav
president Slobodan Milosevic in his address to the nation
broadcast on Yu-Info TV channel on Friday (Oct. 6),
admitting defeat in the presidential elections by his
opponent Vojislav Kostunica, candidate of Democratic
opposition of Serbia (DOS).

"I personally intend to take a short break, to spend more
time with my family, and then, afterwards, to primarily
strengthen my party...Socialist party of Serbia will be a
very strong opposition" finished Milosevic his address
making it clear that he has no intention of fleeing the
country, or leaving political life.

This seems to be the epilogue of election crisis in
Yugoslavia and two-week long fight between Milosevic and
Kostunica for presidency of FRY, which culminated on
Thursday in Belgrade with mass and violent protests
orchestrated by DOS.

Vojislav Kostunica made his oath on Saturday night in
Belgrade "Sava Center", by which he officially became new
president of Yugoslavia. On the joint constitutive sessions
of both chambers of Federal Parliament, Kostunica bounded
himself to "respect and implement the Constitution of FRY
and federal laws, to preserve the sovereignty, independence
and integrity of FRY..."

Earlier in the night, both chambers of the Yugoslav
Parliament were constituted for the new session. The Chamber
of Citizens verified 119 out of 138 deputy mandates, and
Chamber of Republics 39 out of 40 mandates.

In both chambers of the Federal Parliament the
representatives of Milosevic's left coalition have the
majority. This was clear from the start, and even DOS
representatives agreed to it.

Still, Milosevic's obvious presence in Yugoslav capital and
appearance on TV, putting the end to rumors and wild guesses
as to his whereabouts and intentions, came as a shock to DOS
leaders and their supporters, who had been convinced that
ex-Yugoslav president had long since left Belgrade, if not
indeed the country. That, coupled with the fact that a
leftist government might be formed soon, is casting a shadow
on DOS's present advantage.

Zoran Djindjic, DOS campaign manager, gave a statement to
the press immediately after Milosevic's address on Friday,
saying that Slobodan Milosevic is just preparing a blow from
the back and intends to consolidate the police forces, so he
could come back on scene as a tough hand. Obviously afraid
that someone or something can still endanger their
"democratic revolution", Djindjic finished rather
paranoically: "I do not trust Milosevic!"

Still, if Milosevic is not to be trusted, why not accept the
assurances and congratulations offered to Kostunica by
thehighest representatives of the army and police? It seems
that DOS's fear of one man and his presence is so great,
that not even the fact that those institutions didn't react
during Thursday's vandalistic demonstrations can reassure
the Serbian opposition.

Perhaps the DOS is simply being aware of its own fragility:
from the very beginning, it has been highly dependent on
foreign support and money. This ad hoc alliance of some 18
parties has only one common ground and program - to oust
Milosevic.

Not to forget that the DOS candidate, newly-proclaimed FRY
president Kostunica, is a leader of a small party with low
support from the people, and a man of low significance. The
person running the show for this particular puppet on a
string is Zoran Djindjic, who in his own turn is a puppet of
the administration in Washington.

Not to forget that over 2 million Yugoslav citizens voted
against Kostunica precisely for the above mentioned reasons,
knowing who the powers behind DOS are and not wanting to be
a part of "Pax Americana".

"Slobodan Milosevic had very little or no chance at all"
said Petar Raskov (70), a Federal court judge on pension,
underlining that pressure exercised on Serbia, of power,
money and media combined, was too heavy for Serbian people
not to yield. "Milosevic was the only man to preserve the
FRY resistance to NATO's "Drang nach Osten" (Push to the
East) strategy. I couldn't vote for NATO, not even if it
puts on a disguise of Serbian nationalist with anti-American
policy".

As for those who did - a gun at man's temple can be a good
incentive, and endlessly repeated "international community"
treats to Serbian people that as long as Milosevic is
Yugoslav president, sanctions against their country won't be
lifted, obviously influenced the ultimate decision,
especially with the young people.

"I didn't vote for Kostunica, he is nobody!" says Milan
Ristic (24), a student from Belgrade. "But his victory might
bring better days for Yugoslavia. I voted against Milosevic,
because the whole world was against him!"

Therefore, after plowing Yugoslav land with bombs and
missiles in Spring of 1999, after fertilizing it for over a
year with media-launched lies and money, Military Alliance
of the West is getting ready to pick up the harvest.

END

---

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What is Albright Really Promising for the
'New' Yugoslavia?
by Jared Israel (10-8-2000)

www.tenc.net
[Emperor's Clothes]

As Clinton administration officials wax euphoric over their
'democratic' coup d'état in Yugoslavia, we say, "Why not?
What is democracy without a few hundred million dollars in
US bribes plus a mob that sacks the parliament building and
loots paintings, chairs and computers?"

Is this what they meant by 'free elections'?

Accompanying the expressions of euphoria are promises of
Good Things to Come:

"[Secretary of State Madeleine
Albright]...promised assistance from Washington
and its European allies for reconstruction so that
Yugoslavs 'can have the normal life that the rest of
the Balkans are beginning to have.'" ('LA Times',
10-6-2000)

Assistance and a normal life. We will be publishing an
in-depth look at the meaning of this assistance. The plan for
Yugoslavia is a Marshall plan in reverse. Whereas the first
Marshall Plan was a Keynsian affair, pumping money into
local economies, providing cheap credit and so on, this plan
will do the reverse. In essence, Yugoslavia will pay war
reparations to the West. More on that in later articles.

Albright promises to bring Yugoslavia "the normal life that
the rest of the Balkans are beginning to have."

That suggests the ''rest of the Balkans'' was doing badly
before the West took over and now they doing better.

Untrue. The countries the US has 'assisted', particularly
Bulgaria and Albania in the Balkans, along with Ukraine and
the Russian Federation next door, had a decent standard of
living before the West imposed 'structural adjustment' plans.
These plans have caused economic and social devastation.
And conditions are getting worse.

Albania has in essence no functioning economy. If it weren't
for the 1/3 of the labor force that works outside the country,
mainly in Italy and Greece, and the money these people remit
back to their families, there would be no economy at all.
(Albanian economic figures are manipulated to give the false
impression of economic improvement. In reality there is
almost no economic activity.) Bulgarian industry and social
life have been destroyed. Bulgaria and Russia have falling
populations.

Radio Free Europe had a story recently that

ONLY 30 PERCENT OF RUSSIAN BIRTHS
ARE 'NORMAL.

'The Russian Academy of Medical Sciences told
AP on 5 October that the number of normal births
in the Russian Federation declined from 45.3
percent in 1992 [after International Monetary
Fund 'reforms' were first instituted, which
destroyed the Russian social safety net] to just 30
percent in 1999. (RFRFE/RL Newsline, 10/6/00)

The story goes on to blame this terrible statistic mainly on
personal problems - excessive drinking and the like. It is true
enough that many people in economically devastated
countries develop extreme personal problems. But it is
important to understand the cause: the International
Monetary Fund ordered the Russia government to institute
extreme social spending cuts, and these cuts shattered the
medical system. At the same time, wages were pushed down
to as little as $2 a month. People who don't eat properly and
regularly don't have healthy pregnancies, do they?

****

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www.tenc.net
[Emperor's Clothes]

---

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Did any major power NOT fund the Kostunica campaign?

"For Germans it was 'an obligation based on history.' to back the push
for
democracy [said Fischer.]...

''Der Spiegel also reported that Fischer, U.S. Secretary of State
Madeleine
Albright and some G-8 foreign ministers brought the Yugoslav opposition
together in Berlin on December 17.

'''We read the riot act to the opposition then and told them to get
their
act together,'' it quoted one participant as saying.'' [From article
below]

[Note: If you are familiar with Germany's history in the Balkans
Fischer's
remark is chilling. Our thanks to Professor of Linguistics Peter Maher
for
sending in this story.]

BERLIN, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Germany said on Saturday it had supported the
Yugoslav opposition with millions of marks in financial aid.

Norway also said it had helped fund the Yugoslav opposition's election
campaign, which led to victory by opposition candidate Vojislav
Kostunica
and soon afterwards to the overthrow of strongman President Slobodan
Milosevic.

German Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer said in a magazine interview
that
Germany had been duty bound to provide financial support to Slobodan
Milosevic's opponents.

``It could have all ended up being far bloodier,'' Fischer told Der
Spiegel. For Germans it was ``an obligation based on history'' to back
the
push for democracy, he added.

Der Spiegel said around $30 million, mostly from the United States, was
channelled through an office in Budapest.

Another 45 million marks ($20 million) from Germany and other Western
states went to cities that were under opposition control. Der Spiegel
said
the Foreign Ministry sent around 17 million marks through 16 German
towns,
which also contributed.

A spokeswoman for the Foreign Ministry confirmed the figures. ``It was
not
disguised but rather it was entirely normal financial aid from the
budget,'' she said.

She said four million marks in media support went to Yugoslavia. She
declined to identify which media outlets channelled the money, but Der
Spiegel said state broadcasters ZDF and Bayerischer Rundfunk were used.
No
one from either broadcaster was available for comment.

Der Spiegel also reported that Fischer, U.S. Secretary of State
Madeleine
Albright and some G-8 foreign ministers brought the Yugoslav opposition
together in Berlin on December 17.

``We read the riot act to the opposition then and told them to get their
act together,'' it quoted one participant as saying.

Most of the opposition, long divided by infighting and personality
clashes,
united behind Kostunica in last month's presidential election that
ultimately ended Milosevic's rule.

Germany urged the European Union on Friday to offer immediate assistance
to
the new government in Belgrade. Economics Minister Werner Mueller
promised
in an interview with Bild am Sonntag newspaper to be published on Sunday
that Yugoslavia would receive ``immediate aid'' from the EU.

NORWAY ALSO SAYS HELPED OPPOSITION

In Oslo, Foreign Ministry spokesman Victor Roenneberg told Reuters the
government had given ``several million crowns'' in financial aid to
Yugoslavia and provided supplies ranging from computer and
communications
equipment for the opposition's vote count to oil to
opposition-controlled
villages.

Norway also funded opposition-run newspapers, radio stations and
Internet
media, he said.

``It is highly unusual to fund one party against another, but because we
had assisted the opposition throughout the election, we were quite
convinced that the opposition had a clear majority from the beginning,''
Roenneberg said.

Norwegian Foreign Minister Thorbjoern Jagland arrived in Belgrade early
on
Saturday and met with Kostunica, who was to be sworn in at a ceremony
later
in the day.

``Norwegian diplomacy manages to do things even though it works
quietly,''
Jagland told national news agency NTB.

Norway has also said it will concentrate more of its foreign aid on
Yugoslavia.

(c) Reuters 2000. Reposted for fair use only.

www.tenc.net [Emperor's Clothes]

********************************************************

DON'T BE FOOLED BY POSTURING O YUGO COUP "GOVERNMENT"

Dear people,
In a message posted earlier there is a quote from the British
'Independent'
which reads:

<< The new government of Yugoslavia was furious yesterday after
Washington
suggested that sanctions would not be lifted unless Slobodan Milosevic
was
handed over to the War Crimes Tribunal in The Hague. Vladeta Jankovic,
the
number two to the president-elect, Vojislav Kostunica, issued a stark
warning that relations between the new government and the West will not
run as smoothly as had been hoped >>

Bertolt Brecht says: "When the leaders speak of peace the common people
know war is coming." In other words, beware of posturing.

I think it's very important that the peace movement not be fooled by
some
recent posturing on the part of the self-proclaimed "new government" in
Yugoslavia. This is a US-installed regime, not a "new Government" - it
only exists as a government, if indeed it does exist as a government, by
virtue of a fortune in US bribe money, which financed its organizing
efforts, its violence, aimed at denying the recent election and the
endorsement of Western Imperial governments.

The parliamentary election that accompanied the election for the
ceremonial
post of President on Sept. 24, gave a full majority in both houses to
the
coalition the West calls "Milosevich". Milosevich personally leads far
and
away the biggest mass party in the Balkans. This despite the dangling of
massive US government monetary bribes for any leader willing to join the
DOS coalition which supports Kostunica.

Kostunica was 'approved' as President by the Yugoslav Constitutional
Court
in a situation where a mob straight out of Roman history (but even
better
than Rome cause they had cellular phones) had already gutted parliament,
looted everything possible, and had beaten resisting officials. That is,
the Court gave its approval in a very dangerous situation.

Precisely because the Kostunica/Djidjic Coup was NOT approved by a
majority
- between the people who voted against Kostunica and the people who
didn't
vote, the vast majority have never expressed support for him and many of
those who did vote for him certainly did not vote for a coup - precisely
because most people do NOT approve what he has done, he cannot appear to
be
subservient to the US. His position is most fragile. His entire
apparatus
of support is US funded. This is true of the so-called independent
media,
which now has taken control, gangster fashion, of the mass media such as
Politika that was not previously in the peace of the US government.
This
is true of the political parties that comprise the DOS coalition which
is
Kostunica's tenuous (because infested with mutual hostility) base of
support.

Because Kostunica relies on US paid groups and media in a country that
loathes the US government, his position is fragile. The US has
recognized
this and countless articles hint, or even state outright, that US
officials
are trying not to look to supportive. Obviously a little public
squabbling
with the US is useful. But this is for appearance. As someone once
said,
if you want to figure out where political loyalties lie, "Look at the
money, stupid." And the bribe money comes from Uncle Sugar.

Perhaps the socialist party or other anti-DOS groups needed to make the
best of a bad situation. Perhaps they intelligently avoided a fight
when
the mob ransacked Belgrade because they realized the US was looking for
a
blood bath as an excuse to intervene. Perhaps they handled a very
difficult situation brilliantly. Does that mean we have should be
silence
in the face of a US-paid for coup? If we do not expose the fact that a
NATO proxy force has seized power, or at least partly seized power, if
we
attempt to gloss over the hard reality, that US government overt and
covert
agencies organized and financed a coup in Yugoslavia - if we do not
tell
the truth about these things we would become the pets of the Empire: Yap
yap, cute doggy; don't worry, he doesn't bite. We would fail in our most
important task: to help the people in our countries understand the
Imperial
hand behind these events.

Peace activist Marjaleena Repo and Canadian Professor Kitsikis (the
latter
specializes in electoral practices in the Balkans) interviewed Vladeta
Jankovic, the man quoted by the "independent' above. This was at the
time
of the Sept 24 Yugoslav elections. Jankovic endorsed the taking of vast
sums of US
money. Jankovic justified it by saying "we really need it badly" - an
argument that can be used to justify any crime. Indeed. Prof. Kitsikis
responded that this was high treason. Jankovic had no answer.

Isn't it a bit late for Mr. Jankovic to posture about his virginity?

Jared Israel

For more on these questions please see www.tenc.net [Emperor's Clothes]

******************************************************

>From Milosevic to the Future

>From the standpoint of cameras and Western journalists, the fall of
Milosevic appears indistinguishable from other velvet and near-velvet
revolutions that have toppled dictators from Prague to Manila. A
righteous
outpouring of people into the streets, a ham-handed, venal government
capitulates and a new day is born.

But it is never as simple as breathless broadcasts might paint it. To
understand the fall of Slobodan Milosevic, it is important to understand
the manner in which he fell. The truth in Yugoslavia lies somewhere
between
the grand aesthetic of the public drama and the more mundane details of
deal making. Indeed, the latter is frequently more defining than the
former. And many disappointed expectations are rooted in details
overlooked
by revolution's glamour.

The roots of Milosevic's demise can be traced to the frustration of the
American and British governments, enmeshed in the realities of
peacekeeping
in Kosovo, with no hope of conclusion. NATO was trapped in a quagmire
without exit. In Belgrade, the opposition failed, divided, and were
discredited as agents of NATO, all against a backdrop of Serb
victimization.

Everyday Serbs were convinced of two things: They had not committed
atrocities, and they themselves were the targets of an unjust bombing
campaign. Milosevic was the great beneficiary. He might have been a
swine,
but he was Serbia's swine. Incompetent on many fronts, he at least
defended
the national interest. In this context, the opposition had as much
chance
of winning as Quisling had of carrying Norway in World War II.

The United States reacted with a new strategy. Described in "Toppling
Milosevic: The Carrot Instead of the Stick," the new strategy consisted
of
splitting Milosevic from his followers. Cracks opened but were contained
when Milosevic called for elections. But before the election it became
clear Milosevic had
nearly trapped himself, as recounted in "Checkmate in Yugoslavia,".

Milosevic's Cabinet, his cronies and the army and police held the key to
the drama. Milosevic had to be isolated from those levers of power
before
the crowds could storm parliament. Thousands could have been killed, as
they were in Romania with the fall of Ceaucescu. Milosevic might cling
to
power.

It was imperative the leadership split from Milosevic and accommodate
Kostunica. Public displays of police suddenly embracing demonstrators
probably had less to do with the passions of the moment than with
fevered
deals being made between Kostunica and former Milosevic followers. These
deals brought both the peace and the revolution.

The deals also created a revolution with a complex genesis and an
uncertain
future. Milosevic is certainly gone. The temptation among many,
including
his closest followers, is to blame everything on him. The head of the
international war crimes tribunal in the Hague has made it clear
Milosevic
should be tried for war crimes, but Kostunica has made it clear he does
not
want to see prosecution proceed.

As president, he might be able to stomach Milosevic's trial, but many of
the people he and the United States had to deal with over the past few
months are also subject to indictment and trial. They would not have
been
as cooperative had Kostunica and likely the United States not made
guarantees about their legal status. Given the example of former
President
Augusto Pinochet of Chile, it seems probable that any world-wise
operators
asked for promises.

As important as the status of charges against Milosevic followers, is
the
issue of Serbian territorial claims, particularly in Kosovo. Kostunica
was
an adamant supporter of Serbian claims in Kosovo. What did the United
States promise Kostunica? Indeed, how long can Kostunica survive without
some movement on Kosovo? And what will Albanians do about the new
darling
of the West?

Kostunica himself remains an enigma. The West would like to turn him
into
another Vaclav Havel. He is not a communist, but he is not a liberal
either. He is a nationalist who, like the rest of Serbia, has viewed the
West with suspicion. He has also created a coalition of diverse
elements,
including former Milosevic supporters who hope to retain their
influence,
if not their position.

It is reasonable to say Kostunica is a snapshot of Serbia today: tired
of
Milosevic, deeply suspicious and resentful of the West, nationalistic to
the very bone. Kostunica is formally democratic, but he understands the
complex personalism and clannishness that comprise Balkan culture. No
Havel, Kostunica is a hardline
nationalist who has come to power partly by accommodating his public
enemies.

The fall of Milosevic gives the West the opportunity to wash its hands
of
the mess. But trying to wash hands and actually washing them are
different
things. The West now finds itself in a position in which it must support
a
political figure financially and politically. The problem is that
political
figure has certain interests that will likely be anathema. If the West
does
not support him, it loses credibility. If it does, it can wind up
supporting the very perspectives that helped lead to war in the first
place.

This is what the ethnic Albanians in Kosovo will fear most. They see
Kostunica as the West's excuse to abandon the Albanians to the Serbs
once
again. And, indeed, that might be the case. Washington, weary of the
mess,
may well declare victory and go home.

(c) 2000 Stratfor, Inc.

***************************************************************

DJINDJIC: FUTURE STATE WILL BE UNION OF SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO

ZAGREB, October 7 (Tanjug) - The future state will not be Yugoslavia
but a
union of Serbia and Montenegro with a common foreign policy, defense and
currency, Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS) election headquarters
chief
Zoran Djindjic said for the Zagreb daily Jutarnji list on Saturday.

Everything else will be separate, he said, adding that a common
parliament, government and president were "unnecessary."

Asked if he would agree to a secession of Montenegro, Djindjic said
this
republic could be as independent as it wished, and that, if the majority
people agreed to secession, "that is not an issue at all."

The situation with Kosovo and Metohija province is different "because
that
region is seen by people as a cradle of the Serb being," Djindjic said.
"Our monasteries, our history" are there, he said.

"In Kosovo at first we want to be present in resolving problems and
realizing international decisions through a new ministry in Pristina
which
would settle problems in the field. Anything else would be an illusion.
Integration is not realistic," he said.

Djindjic said the main issue in future contacts with Croatia would be
the
problem of refugees, and that relations would become harmonious once
this
was settled. He said he believed there was no more hatred for Croatia in
Serbia.

---

Why Germany is in a hurry to help

GERMANY DISBURSES A MILLION EUROS FOR CLEARING DANUBE IN YUGOSLAVIA

BERLIN, October 8 (Tanjug) - Germany paid on Friday the first
instalment
out of one million euros (1.95 million German marks) pledged for
clearing
the River Danube through Yugoslavia, according to a foreign ministry
spokesman in Berlin on Saturday.

The payment of 500,000 euros (977,500 G-marks), spokesman Andreas
Michaelis said, was made into an international fund for clearing the
Danube, an important European traffic artery that NATO's bombs closed to
navigation last year.

This makes Germany the first donor actually to make a payment to the
Fund,
Michaelis said, adding that Germany was giving the first clear signal of
support for a democratic Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, both
bilaterally
and as a member of the European Union.

He explained that the campaign for clearing the Danube of the debris of
war had long been planned, but could not be implemented because of
frequent
disagreements with the Yugoslav side.

He went on to say that the problem was expected to be cleared up soon
with
the inauguration of Yugoslavia's new President Vojislav Kostunica.

**********************************************

Albright Says Priority Is to Help Kostunica

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States said on Sunday that its
priority
in Yugoslavia was to help President Vojislav Kostunica by lifting
economic
sanctions and giving the people of Yugoslavia a democracy dividend.

Accountability for defeated Yugoslav leader and indicted war criminal
Slobodan Milosevic (news - web sites) will come ``ultimately'' as
Yugoslavia becomes part of a democratic Europe, Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright said on NBC's ``Meet the Press'' program.

Kostunica took the oath of office on Saturday, one day after Milosevic
conceded defeat in presidential elections held on Sept. 24. He has said
he
opposes extraditing Milosevic to face trial on war crimes charges in The
Hague.

Albright said she was confident that Yugoslavs would eventually come
round
to the view that Milosevic should face trial.

``They will get behind this, believe me, when they figure out that they
are free and democratic and that they will be a part of a real Europe,''
she said.

But she added: ``We have to show the Serb people that they did the
right
thing by going out to vote. They need to have some dividends out of
democracy.

``I have no doubt that there will be accountability and Yugoslavia will
not be truly free until that happens. We have to give President
Kostunica
now a chance. Let's help him. The people of Serbia have voted for him.
Let's help him.''

``We want to support him, we want to get assistance to him. I've been
talking to our European partners. We will be lifting certain economic
sanctions to make sure that the people can recover and the Danube is
cleared,'' she added.

Portions of the Danube River in Yugoslavia are closed to traffic
because
of bridges wrecked by NATO (news - web sites)'s bombing campaign last
year.

The European Union is expected on Monday to lift a ban on oil sales and
flights to Yugoslavia. A freeze on the assets of former leaders will
stay.

Pressed on whether extradition of Milosevic was a condition for an end
to
sanctions, Albright noted there was no time limit on prosecutions for
war
crimes for Milosevic and other indicted Serbs, such as Bosnian Serb
political leader Radovan Karadzic and his military chief Ratko Mladic.

``It doesn't run out. ... The United States has insisted and, believe
me,
their time will come,'' she said.

Albright also made a rare foray into domestic politics, backing Vice
President Al Gore (news - web sites), a fellow Democrat, against Texas
Governor George Bush on Balkan policy.

In the first presidential debate on Tuesday, the Republican Bush called
for a bigger Russian role in pushing Milosevic to leave power, a
position
Gore opposed on the grounds that the Russians had not yet recognized
Kostunica as winner.

Albright criticized the Russians for their delay in deciding that
Milosevic had lost.

``Frankly they were late. It took them a little while to assess the
reality there but ultimately, in recognizing President Kostunica they
have
done the right thing.

``We did not want the Russians to mediate, and Vice President Gore made
that quite clear. ... The way the vice president described it was right.
They did not play the role that they needed to at the right time,'' she
said.

*********************************************************

DINKIC: RATE OF EXCHANGE HALVED FOR D-MARK

BELGRADE, October 8 (Tanjug) - G 17 PLUS Executive Director Mladjan
Dinkic
said on Sunday that the new authorities have taken control over the
Foreign
Currency Department and the Payment Operations Service of the National
Bank
of Yugoslavia.

Consequently, the black-market rate of exchange for the D-mark has been
halved and the going rate is now 22 dinars, instead of 40 of two days
ago,
Dinkic said.

The new authorities prevented the withdrawal of some 50 million D-marks
from an account at the National Bank on Friday, even though the
withdrawal
slip had been based on a legitimate decision of the federal government,
Dinkic said, explaining that this action had been carried out in the
interest of the people.