After the Rain - How the West Lost the East -
http://www.geocities.com/vaksam/after.html

Courtesy Bill

World Bank Development News Thursday, October 12, 2000


WORLD BANK BACKS EARLY INVOLVEMENT WITH YUGOSLAVIA.

The World Bank said yesterday it supports early involvement with the new
Yugoslavian government, including setting up donor trusts to help the
fledgling democracy ahead of its becoming a member of the World Bank,
reports Reuters.
The World Bank board of directors "expressed their support for an early
involvement of the World Bank in supporting the positive response of the
international community" to the recent changes in Yugoslavia, the Bank
said in a statement.

"As a first step, once the new government has expressed its interest,
the
Bank would initiate preparations for Yugoslavia's membership by
assessing
the economic situation and exploring with the government options for the
settlement of (arrears)," the Bank added in its statement. Yugoslavia's
arrears at the World Bank amount to $1.7 billion and total $128 million
at
the IMF. The World Bank said those arrears would have to be cleared and
the nation would have to rejoin the IMF before it could rejoin the Bank.
Agence France-Presse and the Wall Street Journal also report.

Yugoslavia, led by strongman President Slobodan Milosevic, was cut off
by
the IMF in 1992 and the World Bank in 1993 for its role in a series of
Balkan wars and for refusing to pay money it owed on loans, Reuters
notes.
While paying arrears of more than $1.8 billion might seem insurmountable
to a cash-starved nation, the World Bank and the IMF have in the past
welcomed nations back as members by providing a fresh loan to help pay
arrears.

In its statement, the Bank gave no estimate of how long it might take to
negotiate new membership for Yugoslavia, except that it "will likely
take
some time."

Initially, the Bank plans to offer analytical and advisory support in
cooperation with the EU, the IMF and others, while it helps coordinate
assistance and works on a medium-term reform plan. Once arrears were
cleared and membership was in place, the Bank said it could provide new
loans to help the country work toward a lasting economic recovery after
more than a decade of strife, NATO bombings last year and sanctions.
"The
World Bank's possible role in (Yugoslavia) is based on the assumption
that
further internal politi cal consolidation is quickly achieved ... and
that this leads to the removal of international sanctions," the Bank
said.

A fresh injection of cash from the two international lenders after years
of isolation could prove invaluable in helping rebuild the country's
battered economy, which contracted by more than 20 percent last year.
Inflation in Yugoslavia topped 50 percent this year and unemployment is
close to 30 percent.
With a plunging currency, sky-high inflation and a crumbling
infrastructure, Yugoslavia would be a prime contender to benefit from
help
by the IMF and the World Bank, says the story. The two bodies not only
dispense loans, but also offer technical advice and pointers on building
solid foundations to make economies attractive to outside investors.

The news comes as the New York Times (p. A1) reports that US President
Bill Clinton will announce today that he is lifting many of the trade
and
economic sanctions against Yugoslavia. Citing senior administration
officials as their source, the NYT said Clinton will immediately end the
ban on American flights and an oil embargo against Yugoslavia.
Additional
sanctions will be lifted over the next several weeks. But
administration
officials said they would retain the so-called "outer wall" of sanctions
that prevent Yugoslavia from receiving aid from the IMF and the World
Bank, as well as some which prevent Milosevic and his cronies from
sending
assets overseas.

Meanwhile, reports the Financial Times (p.2), Yugoslavia is aiming to
raise up to $500 million from international donors to help finance
imports
of fuel and other essentials over the difficult winter months, according
to Miroljub Labus, head of the interim federal government. But more
important than the final sum is the speed with which aid can be
delivered,
he said.

Speaking a day after meeting French Foreign Minister Hubert V�drine and
moments before welcoming Bodo Hombach, head of the Southeast Europe
Stability Pact, Labus said, "It is important that this message is heard
everywhere. Much better we have $100 million right now than $500
million
in a year's time." It was vital that links were created quickly, he
said,
and that people saw the benefits [of a democratic regime].

German officials last night suggested that the EU could agree immediate
help worth some $100 million at the EU leaders summit in Biarritz this
weekend.

Labus, who is expected to remain head of the government if a multi-party
team is established, said the economy would be his priority. He wants
to
liberalize and create a market economy open to foreign aid, loans and
investment, and would not be dogmatic.

The news comes as AFP reports that the UN war crimes tribunal for the
former Yugoslavia said yesterday it would give Yugoslovia's new
leadership
some time to consolidate democracy-but still expected Belgrade to
eventually hand over Milosevic for trial. "I think we have to be
prepared
to give Kostunica time provided that in the end of the day all the
indictees are going to be surrendered to this tribunal," said Graham
Blewitt, deputy prosecutor of Hague-based International Criminal
Tribunal
for the Former Yugoslavia (ICTY).

Further, a New York Times editorial (p. A30) notes Yugoslavia's economy
is now more than a decade behind the rest of Central and Eastern Europe
in
making the transition to market capitalism. Most of the privatizations
carried out in the Milosevic era consisted of handouts to political
supporters. Long before tough investment sanctions were imposed last
year, foreign businesses were avoiding Yugoslavia, put off by its
politicized courts, poor fiscal management and rusting industries.
Under
the best of circumstances, Yugoslavia will have a hard time catching up
with those countries that have gone through a decade of generally
successful reforms, like Poland and the Baltic states. At worst
Yugoslavia's economy could follow Russia's path to corruption and
decline.

To avoid that, the editorial says, Kostunica will have to temper his
Serbian nationalism with pragmatism and welcome substantial foreign
investment.
Remaining state-controlled businesses should be rapidly sold off.
Milosevic-era privatizations should be investigated and corrupt deals
renegotiated. The United States can help Kostunica by following
Europe's
lead and lifting most of the economic sanctions imposed during the
Milosevic years, a step President Clinton plans to take today.
Substantial emergency assistance will also be needed this winter.
Washington should be generous, the editorial concludes.

Commenting in the FT (p.17), Wolfgang Petritsch, high representative of
the Western nations in Bosnia and Herzegovina, writes that international
aid should not go to new Yugoslavian President Vojislav Kostunica unless
he extradites suspected Bosnian Serb criminals and gives full
recognition
and cooperation to the multi-ethnic Bosnian state.

Also commenting, Sheryle Bagwell writes in the Australian Financial
Review
that the West is likely to give Kostunica some breathing space to
demonstrate his democratic credentials.

Meanwhile, EBRD Chief Economist Willem Buiter writes in the Guardian
that
foreign financial support will depend heavily on direct investment with
significant support needed from international financial institutions
such
as the World Bank, the IMF and the EBRD. The EBRD has been active in
all
other countries of southeastern Europe. The expertise gained in other
post-war arenas such as Bosnia and Herzegovina can be useful in
Yugoslavia. It is a public institution using private sector projects as
its principal instrument. It has also played an important role in the
funding of public infrastructure. Basic infrastructure will have to be
initially funded with sovereign guarantees and blending multilateral and
bilateral concessionary finance. However, ultimately some sectors will
also have to be financed with private funding and participation.


---


IL NUOVO REGIME IN JUGOSLAVIA APRE LE PORTE ALLE
OPPORTUNITA' D'AFFARI
di Monica Larner - ("Italy Daily", supplemento dell'edizione italiana
dell''"International Herald Tribune" del 10 ottobre 2000)

[Le opportunita' d'affari per le aziende italiane in Jugoslavia, di cui
parla l'articolo qui sotto, non sono poi cosi' nuove. Tra i nomi di
grandi aziende che vi compaiono, Fiat, ENEL, Telecom e Impregilo
avevano gia' effettuato grandi investimenti, o trattato eventuali
affari,
con il regime di Milosevic. Ora hanno buone prospettive di
raccogliere i frutti di tali loro contatti passati]

Dopo la rivoluzione, arriva la ricostruzione - con tutto il suo
strascico di opportunita' d'affari. [...] Per l'Italia - il secondo
maggiore partner commerciale della Jugoslavia dopo la Germania -
la prossimita' geografica e i legami commerciali storici potrebbero
costituire un trampolino rispetto alla concorrenza. Se gli eventi
politici procederanno in Jugoslavia in maniera liscia, il futuro del
paese promette di essere ricco di provatizzazioni, con l'apertura
delle barriere commerciali e la stabilizzazione della valuta. Fino a
quando l'aspra situazione politica nel paese non si raffreddera',
molti membri della comunita' d'affari europea adotteranno un
approccio impostato all' "aspettiamo e vediamo", ma le prospettive
sembrano buone. "Dovra' passare molta acqua sotto i ponti prima
di sapere cosa accadra'", ha affermato il presidente dell'ICE,
Fabrizio Onida in un'intervista a "Italy Daily". "C'e' tuttavia
ottimismo". Egli ha aggiunto che le esportazioni italiane di prodotti
come scarpe, prodotti tessili e generi alimentari saranno le prime a
sfruttare l'occasione. "Gli investitori italiani in genere sono un po'
piu' lenti degli altri", ha affermato. "Ma l'avvio di privatizzazioni in
Jugoslavia potrebbe accendere la scintilla dell'interesse".

Alcune delle piu' note aziende italiane hanno gia' una presenza in
Jugoslavia, come la Fiat, la Iveco, l'Alitalia, la Telecom Italia,
Diesel
e Ferrero. Il Prodotto Interno Lordo della Jugoslavia e' stato stimato
come pari a 22 trilioni di lire dopo la guerra nel 1999, con una
diminuzione del 22% rispetto all'anno precedente. L'ICE prevede
che nel 2000 il PIL raggiungera' 26 trilioni di lire. Nel 1997 la
Telecom Italia aveva comprato una quota del 29% - che ora
corrisponde a un valore di 548 miliardi di lire - della Telecom
Serbia. A causa della guerra in Kosovo, il gigante italiano delle
telecomunicazioni ha perso circa un quarto del valore del suo
investimento iniziale, ma ora si trova di fronte a un mercato ad alta
crescita, che sicuramente continuera' a salire. La Telecom Italia
potrebbe infine vedere il suo investimento iniziale, che gli esperti a
suo tempo avevano definito "rischioso, ma coraggioso", fruttare
ricchi rendimenti. La Jugoslavia ha 2,2 milioni di clienti di linee
telefoniche fisse e solo 350.000 clienti che utilizzano telefonia
mobile, cifre che rendono molto forte il potenziale di nuovi
abbonamenti. Come richiede la legge, il 51% delle quote della
Telecom Serbia e' posseduto dal governo jugoslavo. [...]

Le privatizzazioni potrebbero spalancare la Jugoslavia agli
investimenti esteri. Molti settori, ivi inclusi i servizi pubblici per
l'energia, le infrastrutture e la gestione degli aeroporti, potrebbero
presto vedere licenziamenti di dipendenti ed essere ristrutturati per
dare spazio ai nuovi capitali provenienti dall'estero. Per esempio,
l'ENEL, l'ente statale per l'energia elettrica, potrebbe un giorno
prendere in considerazione di entrare in un mercato jugoslavo
dell'energia privatizzato, ha detto Onida. La societa' edile Impregilo
di Milano potrebbe concorrere per contratti per la ricostruzione
delle strade, dei ponti e delle gallerie danneggiati dalla guerra.

Aldo Fumagalli, presidente e amministratore delegato della Sol,
una societa' con sede a Monza che confeziona e distribuisce gas
come l'ossigeno, l'azoto e l'argon, afferma di essere ottimista sul
futuro della sua azienda in Jugoslavia. Con vendite per 400 miliardi
di lire e 1.050 dipendenti in tutto il mondo, la Sol e' gia' attiva
nella
penisola balcanica, ivi incluso il Kosovo. La Sol fornisce i gas
necessari per gli ospedali, le acciaierie, i cantieri navali e altri
settori. Due anni fa, il signor Fumagalli ha creato una rete di
distribuzione in tutta la Jugoslavia, sfruttando la sua rete integrata
gia' operativa nei paesi confinanti, con valute e relazioni
commerciali piu' solide. Cosi' facendo, la sua azienda e' stata tra le
altre cose in grado di aggirare le limitazioni imposte dall'embargo.
[...]

(Fonte: http://www.ecn.org/est/balcani )

---

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/articles/0,3266,43183,00.html

WORLD
APRIL 24, 2000 VOL. 155 NO. 16
The IMF: Dr. Death?
A case study of how the global banker's shock therapy helps economies
but hammers the poor
BY ERIC POOLEY

---

Bollettino di controinformazione del
Coordinamento Nazionale "La Jugoslavia Vivra'"

> http://digilander.iol.it/lajugoslaviavivra

I documenti distribuiti non rispecchiano necessariamente le
opinioni delle realta' che compongono il Coordinamento, ma vengono
fatti circolare per il loro contenuto informativo al solo scopo di
segnalazione e commento ("for fair use only")

Per contributi e segnalazioni: jugocoord@...

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