http://www.antiwar.com/malic/pf/p-m030801.html

              ANTIWAR, Thursday, March 8, 2001

              Balkan Express
              by Nebojsa Malic
              Antiwar.com

              The Fourth Balkan War

              On Tuesday night it seemed as if the Albanian militants
who invaded the
              Macedonian border village of Tanusevci [Tanushevtsy] were
retreating,
              unhindered, into Kosovo after Monday's pitched battle with
Macedonian
              forces. Despite the fierce fighting, government forces did
not manage to
              dislodge the militants, who were well-armed, even better
positioned, and
              protected by minefields. Three Macedonian soldiers were
killed during
              the operation - two hit landmines and bled to death, as
Albanians shot
              at KFOR helicopters that tried to evacuate them, while one
was killed by
              sniper fire. Parallel to NATO's statements that the
militants were
              supposedly retreating, the government in Skopje said the
insurgency was
              far from over. The army detected traces of militants that
suggested
              other villages in the area might have been affected. Prior
experience
              indicates that this is not the last Macedonians have seen
of the
              "National Liberation Army," or the last attempt of
militant Albanians to
              carve out their desired Balkan empire.

              ONE, TWO, THREE

              Early in the 20th century, the continued Ottoman
occupation of Balkan
              lands was of great concern to those nations that spent the
prior century
              struggling for their freedom. In 1912, they formed a
coalition and
              attacked the Turks in what became known as the First
Balkan War, driving
              them almost all the way back to the Bosporus before
Austria-Hungary
              intervened to stop the Turkish defeat. The great powers
then dictated
              the terms of peace, creating Albania as a state and
limiting the
              territorial gains of Serbia and Greece. Bulgaria, unhappy
with its share
              of the spoils, attacked Serbia in 1913. Other allies
joined Serbia and
              defeated Bulgaria in the Second Balkan War, which gave the
Turks a
              chance to recapture some territory and cut Bulgaria off
from the Aegean.
              Events of the 1990s could justifiably be called the Third
Balkan War -
              as events from 1991 to 1995 represented a continuum that
ended with the
              Dayton Agreement, once again a solution forced upon the
combatants by
              the world powers. Given that the fighting in Kosovo, which
started in
              1998, stopped only under a temporary armistice between
NATO and
              Yugoslavia in June 1999, we might as well face the stark
reality that we
              are in the middle of the Fourth Balkan War. The stakes are
as high this
              time as they were ninety years ago, or ten years ago, and
the
              bloodletting may have just begun.

              CAUSES OF WAR

              At the heart of this Fourth War is the Albanian drive for
separation,
              not only from Serbia but from Macedonia, Greece and even
Montenegro.
              Whether this separation serves the purpose of a "Greater
Albania," or a
              "Greater Kosovo" seems immaterial. The program of Greater
Albania is,
              after all, advocated by Kosovo Albanians more than any
others, and the
              future capital of this "country" is supposed to be in
Pristina, not
              Tirana. Albania proper may be on the periphery of events
right now, and
              could even express public criticism in order to deflect
bad press, but
              there is little doubt it would join a Greater Kosovo if
that monstrous
              creation ever came into being.

              PATTERNS OF BEHAVIOR

              From what little is known of them, it seems the Albanian
militants in
              Macedonia have the same modus operandi as those in
southern Serbia, even
              the KLA in Kosovo. It seizes and holds a village or
multiple villages,
              provoking an armed response. At the same time, it rants
and raves to the
              international press about the horrible "repression"
Albanians are
              subjected to. Once attacked by government forces, the
insurgents fight
              hard, then withdraw, taking or ordering many civilians
along. These
              "refugees" are then used to bolster the militants' claim
of "genocide"
              now pursued by the government that have until then merely
"repressed"
              them. Of course, the militants declare their absolute
commitment to a
              peaceful solution, which invariably entails the de facto
separation of
              the territories they claim, and its placement under
international
              protectorate or armed occupation. This "peace process"
should be
              "mediated" by an external broker, preferably NATO or the
US. This was
              the case at Rambouillet in early 1999, and the Albanians
claiming
              Presevo valley in southern Serbia are demanding it be the
case again. If
              the pattern holds, Albanians from Macedonia are likely to
make a similar
              demand in a month or so. All along, however, these
militants will refuse
              to disarm, retreat or disband, claiming their existence is
necessary to
              "protect and defend" their people. They are, of course,
open to the
              possibility of "demilitarization" by submitting to NATO
command and
              getting on the payroll, as the "reformed" KLA did by
transforming into
              the KPC.

              EASY PICKINGS

              Another mark of Albanian militants is that their attacks
usually follow
              the path of least resistance. If fought decisively they
will retreat and
              regroup, but never quit. At this point, Macedonia and
Yugoslavia are
              both theoretically strong enough to deal with the
militants. However,
              they are hobbled by NATO's insistence on restraint and, in
come cases,
              indirect support for the militants. In Yugoslavia's case,
the lingering
              effect of the conflict with Kosovo militants has left a
bad taste in
              Belgrade's mouth - not to mention depleted uranium marks -
and seriously
              undermined the new government's will to fight. Barred from
resolving the
              issue themselves, they demand of NATO to intervene on
their behalf. The
              logic of this is most peculiar, especially in the case of
Yugoslavia,
              officially still the enemy of NATO in Kosovo. For if
Yugoslavia were not
              considered an enemy, there would be no need for KFOR's
continued
              occupation.

              Both Macedonia and Yugoslavia have other problems, which
further weakens
              their capability for self-defense. Macedonia has to find a
way to act
              without alienating a large Albanian population, whose
representatives
              are part of the ruling coalition government. The issue of
its official
              name and southern border, which was about to be resolved
with Greece,
              was postponed due to the Albanian attack, and represents a
permanent
              strategic liability.

              Yugoslavia also has to deal with a potentially fatal issue
of
              Montenegrin secessionism, running more rampant as the
country weakens.
              The cobbled-together government of Serbia is very
politically unstable
              and often contradicting itself. As if that weren't enough,
the US-funded
              War Crimes Tribunal continues to blackmail and pressure
Belgrade on the
              issue of its former leaders, indicted for alleged (and yet
unproven) war
              crimes as a boost to NATO's position during the 1999 war.
This
              relentless pressure also magnifies the scope of new
Albanian claims of
              "repression and genocide," propaganda which defies
countermeasures in a
              US/NATO-dominated media world. Even Macedonia has to be
sensitive to
              these accusations, because Balkans mud does not come off
easily.

              LOCAL INTEREST

              The surrounding countries are also interested in the
progress and
              outcome of the conflict. In the west, Croatia hopes the
region would
              calm down but also secretly hopes Serbia would be further
weakened and
              eliminated as a rival. Croat and Muslim ethnic interests
in Bosnia are
              also watching, hoping that Serbia's defeat could open the
possibility of
              "revising" the Dayton treaty by taking out the Serbs
within Bosnia's
              boundaries. In the most moderate scenario, the Serbs would
be
              assimilated into a unitary state. In some less amicable
plans, they
              would meet the fate of Croatian Serbs at the end of the
Third War.

              In the north, there is a growing possibility that Serbia's
province of
              Vojvodina might split off if Albanians have their way. A
sizable
              Hungarian population there could likely advocate
annexation by Hungary.
              Bulgaria could also hope to increase its territory, by
marching into
              what's left of Macedonia after the Albanians are done.
Some fear that
              Bulgaria's offer to send troops to help fight the
Albanians might be the
              first act of just such a move. Moreover, a week ago
Bulgaria's president
              signed a treaty with NATO giving its troops free access to
all of
              Bulgaria.

              Greece has plenty of reasons to worry, as Albanian
aspirations include
              some of its territory as well. If Albanians are allowed to
expand and
              grow stronger, it may be just a matter of time before
Greece is "asked"
              by its NATO allies to relinquish the so-called "Chameria"
region, "in
              the interest of regional stability," of course.

              THE GREAT POWERS

              A common thing to all four Balkan Wars has been the
presence of a
              "shadow participant" - the great power(s). In the First
and Second, the
              strongest force was Austria-Hungary, backed by Germany. In
the Third and
              Fourth, without a doubt, that force is the United States,
through NATO.

              Why? United States' motivation is an area that deserves a
column - and
              volumes of books - in its own right. But it is more than
anything else,
              "realist". It seeks the greatest tangible gains at the
lowest cost.
              American involvement in Bosnia, according to Ambassador
Richard
              Holbrooke, reasserted US leadership in Europe. This
purpose was again
              served in Kosovo, when the US dragooned its European
allies into
              launching a war against Yugoslavia in violation of the
entire body of
              international law. Even though the war barely achieved its
publicized
              objectives, it was far more successful at revamping NATO
as the tool of
              US domination in Europe and elevating it above the UN as
the supreme
              arbiter of conflicts in the "Atlantic" sphere of
influence, wherever it
              might reach.

              Some politicians in Yugoslavia and Macedonia live under
the illusion
              that NATO fought the Kosovo war in the name of democracy,
human rights
              and international law. This assumption has tremendous
potential to prove
              fatal to both countries. The US (and hence NATO) could
care less about
              the first two, save to use them as propaganda slogans,
while they
              brazenly violated the third. If power is America's
foremost goal, why
              would it possibly risk aiding the powerless FRY and
Macedonia at the
              expense of Albanian militants its special forces and
contractors had
              trained and equipped, and on whose behalf its bombers went
to war?

              Last, but not least, the United States and its allies
enjoy domination
              in the media theater, thanks to which they can
effortlessly manipulate
              propaganda and perceptions in favor of their allies. Thus
a Reuters
              reporter can write an absolutely irrational statement that
NATO is
              "worried the gunmen, emboldened by the success or an armed
struggle in
              Kosovo, might extend it to Macedonia" (Reuters, March 6),
while leaving
              out that the "gunmen" owe the success of their "armed
struggle in
              Kosovo" squarely to the Alliance's bombing spree against
everything that
              moved in Serbia, so that NATO's concern stems from either
idiocy or
              hypocrisy.

              WORDS AND DEEDS

              Manipulation of facts is a tremendously understated
weapon. Hypocrisy is
              another. The US is officially striving for stability in
the region. And
              indeed, it might be. A Greater Albania and an expanded
Bulgaria, both in
              America's fold and leaning on Turkey as a staunch US ally,
would ensure
              US domination over southern Europe for decades, and enable
the Empire to
              push into central Asia, towards the vast oil and gas
fields of the
              former Soviet Union. As for the public US commitment to
the integrity of
              borders, the same policy espoused by the Bush I
administration never
              stopped Ambassador Warren Zimmerman from doing his best to
encourage the
              destruction of Yugoslavia by 1992. As Zimmerman himself
said to a
              Croatian magazine in 1992, "nothing is forever." Respect
for borders and
              sovereignty would imply respect for international law,
which the US and
              NATO got to be immune from since their 1999 bombing war.
Hoping that the
              Empire would actually favor ideological ends - protecting
democracies,
              for example - over practical gains is, to put it mildly,
irrational.
              Freed from any moral responsibility, the Empire would
sacrifice anyone
              and anything - especially the people it has demonized for
so long - if
              the result of that sacrifice was more power and more
money.

              Hence, if the US could interfere in the Third Balkan War
to assert its
              domination over Europe and help start the Fourth to cement
this
              leadership, what makes anyone think it would abandon that
objective, or
              the war that leads to it, midway through the fighting? Two
years after
              the armistice, under a new leadership anxious to prove
itself in battle,
              it might be time again to show the increasingly uppity
European vassals
              who the real rulers of the known world are, and if the
Balkans is
              secured in the process, why that would be splendid.

              Just splendid.
 
---

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